外媒: 中国经济可能正在衰退

近日自由撰稿人Sara在全球著名经济分析网站Seeking Alpha发表了一篇文章,指出中国经济目前可能处于衰退迹象。



《China Is In A Recession》 (Seeking Alpha)
《中国陷入衰退》(Seeking Alpha)


China is in a recession. No, not in terms of official statistics, which some have been dubious about, but in terms of how much the economy is suffering on the ground. It hasn’t escaped anyone’s notice that the economy is in trouble, despite the fact that the government reported a 6.5% growth rate in the third quarter of this year. There are several important indications of China’s economic pain, including trouble in the stock market, retail sales, and industrial production. 中国陷入衰退。不是官方统计数据,有些人一直怀疑,但就经济在实地受到的影响而言。尽管政府报告今年第三季度的增长率为6.5%,但并未让任何人注意到经济陷入困境。中国的经济阵痛有几个重要迹象,包括股市,零售和工业生产的麻烦。


Industrial production growth has been flat since 2015, diverging from a trend starting in the 1990s in which production had somewhat more highs and lows. It appears to meet a minimum level that it doesn’t dip beneath, perhaps for policy reasons. Fixed asset investment reached an all-time low in August 2018. Even though much of China is still under construction, it is at a far slower pace than in the past couple of decades. 自2015年以来,工业生产增长持平,与20世纪90年代开始的趋势不同,后者的产量有所增加。它可能出于政策原因,似乎高于最低水平。固定资产投资在2018年8月创下历史新低。尽管中国大部分地区仍在建设中,但其速度远低于过去几十年。


The downturn has been obfuscated by economic stimulus, which has striven to make up for demand shortfalls through government spending. 经济刺激措施使经济衰退陷入困境,经济刺激措施一直在努力通过政府支出来弥补需求不足。



Sharehoarder : I wonder how Chinese tech stocks would fare now that the US government has asked allies to stop using Huawei…. 我想知道现在美国政府已经要求盟国停止使用华为.
T tbaWhynot?Windsun3 : Did anyone honestly think high single/low double digit growth could go on forever? The slow growth can be attributed to simple mathematics and the power of compounding. And how is China’s economy struggling? Markets are down, sure, but median income is rising, poverty is plummeting, and global influence is only growing.”… striven to make up for demand shortfalls through government spending” people were using this argument back in 2010 for why the US was going to double dip after the recession. Yet since then we’ve been on the biggest bull run since practically forever. How much lower can China get, given that decent growth is almost certain? Their largest companies are trading at discounts never seen before, and their underlying businesses are solid.Fears are insanely overstated in China.真的有人认为两位数的增长会永远持续下去吗?这种缓慢的增长可以归因于简单的数学和叠加原因。中国经济在挣扎?市场确实在下跌,但中产阶级在上升,贫困在下降,全球影响力只是在增长。“努力通过政府支出来弥补需求缺口”人们早在2010年就用这个论点来解释为什么美国在经济衰退后会双底衰退。但从那时起,我们就一直处于最大的牛市。鉴于像样的增长几乎可以肯定,中国能降到多低?他们最大的公司正在以前所未见的折扣价进行交易,他们的基础业务是稳固的。在中国,恐惧被过分夸大了。
Whynot? : No, it can be attributed to toxic stimulus measures propping up institutions that cannot compete and unseen debt levels. She explained very clearly why China’s economy is struggling. If you are relying on state spending for all your GDP growth which has been what they’ve done, you get stuck with massive waste, massive debt levels and consumption levels that cannot be maintained. There are many reasons why people fear China. Massive corruption, theft, government propping and trade relations that are not one sided, authoritarian tendencies on a massive scale I mean the list goes on. 不,这可以归因于有毒的刺激措施,支持那些无法竞争的机构,以及看不见的债务水平。她非常清楚地解释了为什么中国经济正在挣扎。如果你依靠政府支出来维持你的GDP增长,而这正是他们所做的,那你就会陷入巨大的浪费、巨额的债务水平和无法维持的消费水平之中。人们害怕中国的原因有很多。大规模的腐败、盗窃、政府扶持和贸易关系不是单方面的,大规模的专制倾向,我的意思是名单还在继续。
JLow50 : Meanwhile in the US everything is great! Housing is down, Car sales are down, the market is tanking, interest rates are rising, plus we are getting are easily winnable trade war. 与此同时,在美国,一切都很棒!房屋价格下跌,汽车销量下降,市场萎缩,利率上升,再加上我们很容易赢得贸易战。
june1234Windsun33 : For the first time in decades Chinese auto sales face their first decline, a decline even more pronounced in big ticket items like home appliances.  几十年来,中国汽车销量首次面临下滑,在家电等大件商品上的下降更为明显。
Windsun33 : Car sales in China has been ready to drop for quite some time. Cities are so overcrowded with cars that some have odd/even drive days, and the local registration fees for a license can be more than the cost of the car. Other sales drops such as durable goods are a lot more troubling. 中国的汽车销售已经有相当一段时间下降了。城市里汽车太拥挤了,以至于有些城市的驾车天数是奇数/偶数,而且当地的驾照登记费可能比汽车的费用还要高。其他销售下降,如耐用品,更麻烦。
Random Logic : Who knew that multinationals have for decades now generated a disproportionate amount of their emergency room growth from the middle kingdom?! Shocking. 谁知道,跨国公司几十年来,从中国发展起来的急诊室数量已经不成比例了?真令人震惊。
Windsun33 : China’s global influence might be growing, but lately it has been in a negative way. Their soft power has been declining for at least the past 3-4 years, and lately has gotten worse. Their reputation for human rights and law is even worse than the GOP, and the populace is getting restless. 中国的全球影响力可能正在增长,但最近一直处于负面。他们的软实力至少在过去3-4年里一直在下降,最近变得更糟。他们在人权和法律方面的声誉甚至比共和党还要差,民众也变得焦躁不安。
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