国外最大的问答平台Quora近日有外国网友提问: 为什么中国不在贸易战中屈服?获得了许多网友的回复,我们来看看外国人是如何看待中美贸易战的?


《Why is China not giving in to Donald Trump’s trade deal?》 (Quora)



Werner HoermannWerne : As someone who has made “deals” all over the world, including China, the purpose is always to come to an understanding with a business partner over a transaction that is in the interest of both partners. One of the most difficult negotiations is a re-negotiation whenever the “deal” proves to be unworkable, i.e. not beneficial to one party. However, the Chinese are very good at that and they will always push for better terms in my experience. For them a “deal “is never a “deal” and continued renegotiation is a way of doing business.作为在世界各地(包括中国)进行“交易”的人,其目的始终是与业务合作伙伴就符合双方利益的交易达成共识。最困难的谈判之一是每当“交易”被证明不可行时,即对一方不利时,重新谈判。然而,中国人在这方面很在行,他们总是在我的经验中争取更好的条件。对他们来说,“交易”从来不是“交易”,持续的重新谈判是做生意的一种方式。
Victor Christopher : I will tell you a Trump delegation selling natural gas stories.Trump: Oh, we have a lot of natural gas, and China has a lot of natural gas demand. China can buy natural gas from us on a large scale.China: Ok, I believe in your business credit, but there is a big problem here. How do you send natural gas to the port? (Although there are a large number of natural gas wells in the United States, these natural gas wells are in inland areas. The aging of natural gas pipelines in the United States and the backward construction of railways have made it impossible to transport large quantities of n… 我会告诉你一个特朗普代表团销售天然气的故事。特朗普:哦,我们有很多天然气,中国有很多天然气需求。中国可以从我们这里大规模购买天然气。中国:好的,我相信你们的商业信誉,但这里有一个大问题。你怎么把天然气送到港口?(尽管美国有大量的天然气井,但这些天然气井都位于内陆地区。美国天然气管道的老化和铁路建设的落后,使得大量的天然气管道无法运输。
Jamie WangPeter Hoff : It’s not a deal at all, and China was about to comply, partially.What USA wants from China are — according to some resources:Lower the trade gap by 200 billion USDLower China’s import tax.Cutting off subsidy to the new industries.Sending people to China to supervise the whole progress.Basically, what USA wants is an unequal treaty to colonize China. If you look at what the colonizers did to every colony, “low tax” must be one of the orders.Lower tax means 2 things:Local industry would be easily crushed by the western companies, because they have higher cost due to lower tech level and small.这根本不是一个协议,中国将要部分遵守。根据一些资料,美国想从中国得到的是:减少2000亿美元的贸易差额,降低中国的进口税。切断对新产业的补贴。派遣人民到中国监督整个进程。基本上,美国想要的是一个不平等的殖民条约。E中国。如果你看看殖民者对每一个殖民地的所作所为,“低税”肯定是命令之一。低税意味着两件事:地方工业很容易被西方公司压垮,因为他们由于技术水平低和规模小而成本更高
Mats Andersson : They are waiting for a party to negotiate with who understands that the purpose of any negotiation is to get a result where both parties have something to gain. Someone, in essence, who negotiates in good faith.Donald Trump is incompetent to grasp this. He believes that any negotiation must have a “winner” and a “loser”. It’s basically a con man’s world view: if you can’t spot the mark at the card table, it means it’s you; if he’s not conning anyone, it must mean he’s being conned. He will never be able to negotiate a real business deal, much less a political deal with high stakes and a hig…They are waiting for a party to negotiate with who understands that the purpose of any negotiation is to get a result where both parties have something to gain. Someone, in essence, who negotiates in good faith.Donald Trump is incompetent to grasp this. He believes that any negotiation must have a “winner” and a “loser”. It’s basically a con man’s world view: if you can’t spot the mark at the card 他们正在等待一方与谁进行谈判,谁知道任何谈判的目的都是为了得到双方都有收获的结果。实质上是一个真诚地谈判的人。唐纳德·特朗普没有能力把握这个。他认为任何谈判都必须有“赢家”和“输家”。这基本上是一个骗子的世界观:如果你不能在牌桌上看到这个标记,那就意味着是你;如果他不纵容任何人,那就意味着他被欺骗了。他永远无法谈判一个真正的商业交易,更不用说高风险和高风险的政治交易了
Craig Stevenson : Only time will tell what occurs. The Chinese negotiator came despite Trumps tariff increase. Of any have who followed Chinese bilateral negotiating tactics down through the years it should be understood, that that was a face loosing move. They never would have done it, if they didn’t have to.One might wonder, with as to how weak they imagine the American political system, and how weak Trump needed a win, and would yield to China, that the US was losing, even will lose, why we haven’t given in.Then even the stepping of Trumps action. 100 billion, 200, tariffs at 10 then 25%, able to go to 50… 只有时间才能告诉我们发生了什么。中国谈判代表不顾关税的增加而来。多年来,任何一个奉行中国双边谈判策略的人都应该明白,这是一个令人丢脸的举动。如果他们不必这么做的话,他们是不会这么做的。有人可能会想,随着他们对美国政治体系的想象变得多么脆弱,特朗普多么需要胜利,多么需要向中国屈服,美国正在输,甚至会输,为什么我们没有屈服。那么,甚至特朗普的行动也会步履维艰。
Aaron Lowe : Another way to answer this question is to ask, why would China give in to Trump’s trade demands?I can’t think of a single reason why. They have enough size to absorb short term losses and the government isn’t as effected by the suffering of its people as America is. America, in that sense, is in a much more vulnerable situation.All China has to do is weather the storm and wait it out until American farmers and business owners revolt and force the whole thing to reverse. Net result, China won’t have to change anything but America will have shot itself in the foot.In the meantime, economic re… 回答这个问题的另一种方法是问,为什么中国会屈服于特朗普的贸易要求?我想不出一个原因。他们有足够的规模来承受短期的损失,而并不像美国那样受到人民苦难的影响。从这个意义上说,美国处于一个更加脆弱的境地。中国所要做的就是经受住这场风暴,等待它过去,直到美国农民和企业主反抗,迫使整个事情发生逆转。最终的结果是,中国不必改变任何事情,但美国将自食其果。与此同时,经济复苏…
Thierry Baudasse : US government owes more than 1 trillion dollars to China, which owns approximately 1/6 of the foreigners owned debt (6 trillion) and 5% of the total debt of 20 trillion, which corresponds to one year gdp of USA. 5% may look small but the Federal budget of US government is only 4 trillion dollars (20% of gdp) so actually US government owes to China 25% of its annual budget. Like if you owe 25% of your annual income to someone.National debt of the United States – WikipediaSo China has also its own capacity to harm US economy.Their total trade balance with the rest of the world is excedentary … 美国欠中国超过1万亿美元,中国拥有约1/6的外债(6万亿美元)和5%的总债务(20万亿美元),相当于美国一年的国内生产总值。5%可能看起来很小,但美国的联邦预算只有4万亿美元(20%的国内生产总值),所以实际上美国欠中国的是每年预算的25%。就像你欠某人25%的年收入一样。美国的国债——维基百科,所以中国也有自己的能力伤害美国经济。他们与世界其他国家的总贸易平衡是多余的……
Larry Levine : Why should they “give in”? What should motivate them to do so?The damned the torpedoes, full speed ahead approach taken with China is foolish. The Chinese are sensitive to loss of face and prestige. To give in the the heavy handed Trump approach would cause the Chinese to lose credibility in the eyes of the world.China would sooner cease all relations with the US than cave and give up pride. Yes they will suffer short term economic hardship but in their eyes the long game is in their favor. And it is.Ultimate downside for the US? The worst would be loss of the dollar being pegged to the wor… 他们为什么要“屈服”?应该怎样激励他们这样做?该死的鱼雷,全速前进的做法与中国是愚蠢的。中国人对面子和威望的丧失很敏感。如果中国放弃强硬的特朗普做法,将使中国在世界上失去信誉,中国宁愿停止与美国的一切关系,也不愿放弃骄傲。是的,他们会遭受短期的经济困难,但在他们看来,长期的竞争对他们有利。是的。对美国来说,最终的负面影响是什么?最糟糕的情况是美元与世界挂钩的损失…
Mark Jubelirer : Well, let’s not pretend that Trump is a good dealmaker in real life.For many reasons, Trump can’t talk trade other than superficially. And he mostly gets even that wrong. He doesn’t understand tariffs.Can you imagine the single greatest trade negotiator of all time not knowing about tariffs? Trump is the self-acknowledged Heavyweight Champion of the World when it comes to making deals, and yet he doesn’t know enough about international trade to even get well-started in a smart discussion.It’s just like everything else he gets involved in. The same question always rears its ugly head. Trump … 好吧,让我们不要假装特朗普是现实生活中一个很好的交易撮合者。因为很多原因,特朗普除了表面上的原因外,不能谈交易。而且他基本上都是错的。他不懂关税,你能想象有史以来最伟大的贸易谈判代表对关税一无所知吗?特朗普是公认的世界重量级拳王,但他对国际贸易的了解还不够,甚至无法在一次明智的讨论中很好地开始。这和他参与的其他事情一样。
Nick Curtis : At present, US civil courts—where corporate America wages war against its competition—have no jurisdiction outside of the US. One of the demands currently on the table is that Chinese corporations submit to US corporate law: any US firms who deemed its Chinese competitor guilty of unfair trade practices would be able file suit in a US civil court, and a war of attrition would follow.The US doesn’t recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC; as a nation, we refuse to submit to international law, yet demand that other countries submit to our law. Curiously, the Chinese find our hypocrisy unpalatab… 目前,美国的民事法院在美国以外没有司法管辖权,美国企业界与竞争对手进行工资战。目前正在讨论的一项要求是,中国公司必须服从美国公司法:任何认为中国竞争对手犯了不公平贸易行为的美国公司都可以向美国民事法院提起诉讼,随后就会发生消耗战。美国不承认国际商会的管辖权;作为一个国家,我们拒绝提交国际法,但要求其他国家服从我们的法律。奇怪的是,中国人发现我们的虚伪令人不快…
Shawn Ellis : China wants to keep cheating and stealing from us.Communism doesn’t reap rewards like Capitalism so that is one of two ways they strengthen their economic position in the world. The second way is move toward Capitalism.Their companies are now producing products that look and function exactly like ours, through “stolen” tech and IP hurting our companies.It Was A Company With A Lot Of Promise. Then A Chinese Customer Stole Its TechnologyChina’s Military Has Greatly Benefited From Stolen TechnologyChinese mustang double.We CANNOT continue to allow this to happen, Trump’s policies affecting Chi… 中国想继续欺骗和偷窃我们,主义不会像资本主义那样获得回报,所以这是他们加强世界经济地位的两种方式之一。第二种方式是走向资本主义。他们的公司现在通过“被盗”技术和知识产权损害我们的公司,生产出与我们的产品外观和功能完全相同的产品。这是一家充满希望的公司。然后一个中国客户偷了它的技术。中国军队从偷来的技术中获益匪浅。
Mithur Sheridan : Trump is giving Xi everything Xi wants and needs.Chinese government has been, of lately, worried about technological dependence with the west. I mean, there are cheap alternatives, makes no sense to reinvent the wheel. And companies know this, and act in consequence.With everything that is happening, now Xi have the excuse to press for more independence from the west, and have also the excuse to inject public money for that to happen. And the high ground to boot.Is the gift that keeps giving.I think this will signal the entry of EU as a whole in the Silk Road initiative. Right now the perce… 特朗普给了习一切需要和需求。中国最近一直担心与西方的技术依赖。我的意思是,有廉价的替代品,重新发明轮子毫无意义。公司知道这一点,并采取行动。现在,一切都在发生,现在有理由向西方施加更多的独立性,也有理由为这件事注入公共资金。而高起点。是不断给予的礼物。我认为这将标志着欧盟作为一个整体进入丝绸之路倡议。
Joseph SiewFrank Sew : Assuming what were stated in the news is true, Donald Trump Administration expects China to sign an unfair treaty ala the Plaza Accord. Look at what happened to Japan, and I conclude that Xi would rather fight the trade war and be a hero to the Chinese and the rest of the world, than to suffer a lost generation and lose anyway. The rest of the world should respect China for standing up to the Hegemony. If Xi and China had signed the unfair treaty, EU, Japan and the rest of the world would have to sign as well. If you have a heart, please give your sincere thanks to China. 假设新闻中所说的是真的,唐纳德·特朗普希望中国在广场协议上签署一项不公平的条约。看看日本发生了什么,我得出结论,XI宁愿打贸易战,对中国人和世界其他国家来说是英雄,而不是忍受迷惘的一代,无论如何都要失败。世界其他国家应该尊重中国的霸权地位。如果XI和中国签署了不公平条约,欧盟、日本和世界其他国家也必须签署。如果你有一颗心,请向中国表示衷心的感谢。
Zachary Reid : There is no deal being offered, just a series of humiliations. Whatever China agrees to will be used as an opportunity for him to gloat. Then he’ll turn the screws even more. This is exactly how he treats Congress, after all. Hell, he added tariffs to 200 billion worth of Chinese imports right in the middle of the last negotiations. Then set out to obliterate Huawei. Trump’s boast that he is a great deal maker is as believable as his claim that his dad is German. 没有交易,只是一系列的羞辱。无论中国同意什么,他都会有机会幸灾乐祸。然后他会把螺丝拧得更紧。毕竟,这正是他对待国会的方式。该死的,他在上一次谈判中就向价值2000亿美元的中国进口商品增加了关税。然后开始消灭华为。特朗普夸口说他是一个伟大的创造者,这和他声称他父亲是德国人一样可信。
Kris Widla : How do you fight a bully?Well, first you need the strength, second you stand up to him.Donald is a dumb bully.Donald thought that China would cave, and tried to bully China. He, and America, got hit right in the face. China added tariffs on specific items that should hurt American farmers in states that voted for Donald. China got it right. Americans will now be buying agricultural goods from the farmers and donating them! Now if that is not buying votes, I am not sure what is…Donald is actually jealous of President Xi. Donald is hated by lots of Americans and needs to fight again for his p… 你怎么对付恶霸?好吧,首先你需要力量,其次你要站起来反抗他。唐纳德是个愚蠢的恶霸。唐纳德以为中国会垮台,并试图欺负中国。他,还有美国,都被击中了。中国对那些投票支持唐纳德的州的特定项目增加了关税,这些项目会损害美国农民的利益。中国做对了。美国人现在将从农民那里购买农产品并捐赠给他们!现在,如果这不是购买选票,我不知道是什么……唐纳德实际上嫉妒习。唐纳德被很多美国人憎恨,他需要为自己的事业再奋斗一次。
Gearld ClineJane Wit : Two years ago the Chinese leadership realized they were stuck with Donald Trump for at least four years. So, they negotiated. When it came time to make good on their agreements they realized there are only two years left on his first term. They tried to stall, hoping a new progressive/globalist/Democrat/RINO, like they have been dealing with the past three decades, was likely going to be back in power shortly, and would pander to their demands. Trump refused to be put off, and put through the tariffs he had been threatening. 两年前,中国领导人意识到,他们与唐纳德·特朗普的关系至少持续了四年。所以,他们进行了谈判。到了达成协议的时候,他们意识到他第一个任期只剩下两年了。他们试图拖延时间,希望一个新的进步主义者/全球化者/民主党人/绿诺主义者,就像他们过去三十年来一直在处理的那样,很快就会重新掌权,并迎合他们的要求。特朗普拒绝被推迟,并通过了他一直威胁的关税。
Bob RJ Abrams : In case you haven’t noticed, Trump is not the deal maker he’d like everyone to think he is.In the last 2–1/2 years Trump has walked away from a lot of deals, but he has made NONE.NAFTA 2.0 is still not complete and it hasn’t been ratified.There is no deal with North Korea and they are still building nukes.We walked away from the Iran nuclear deal, taking away our ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear activity, distancing us from our allies and giving Iran free rein to restart their nuclear program.We walked away from TPP, turning over the entire Pacific Rim to China and lessening our leverage o… 如果你没有注意到,特朗普并不是他希望每个人都认为他是交易制定者的话。在过去的2-1/2年里,特朗普放弃了很多交易,但他没有达成任何协议。北美自由贸易协定2.0仍然不完整,而且还没有得到批准。没有与朝鲜达成协议,他们仍在制造核武器。我们放弃了伊朗核武器。AR协议,剥夺了我们监视伊朗核活动的能力,使我们远离我们的盟国,让伊朗自由地重新启动他们的核计划。我们放弃了TPP,将整个环太平洋地区移交给中国,并降低了我们对伊朗核活动的影响力。
Steven SalamonJakub : If you were China, would you? The only thing they’ve done ‘wrong’ is to steal or otherwise improperly treat intellectual property. And they deserve to pay for that infraction.But, what Trump is worried about is China’s getting to be as big an economy as we are, either in absolute terms or in per capita terms. That’s hardly an ‘offence’ on China’s part. Their population is several times ours. 如果你是中国,你会吗?他们唯一做过的“错误”就是偷窃或以其他方式不当对待知识产权。他们应该为此付出代价,但特朗普担心的是,无论是绝对值还是人均值,中国将成为和我们一样大的经济体。对中国来说,这几乎不是一种“冒犯”。他们的人口是我们的好几倍。
Angelmo Chun : This was never a deal.It was intended for local economy protectionism to keep American Industries from bascally dying to uncompetitive prices of imported raw and refined materials.The tariffs are suppose to balance or bring the imports in to a price range that the local markets can compete with.He is also looking at putting tarifs on products made over there to encourage American consumer good industry to bring the factories home. But I don’t believe this will work, because the intention of American corporations setting up factories in a cheap labor market is not to offer products for a bet… 这从来不是一个协议。它的目的是为了地方经济保护主义,以防止美国工业对进口原材料和精制材料缺乏竞争力的价格垂涎三尺。关税被认为是为了平衡或使进口产品的价格达到当地市场能与之竞争的价格范围。他也在考虑对制造的产品实行关税。在那里鼓励美国消费品行业把工厂带回家。但我不相信这会奏效,因为美国公司在廉价劳动力市场建立工厂的目的不是为了提供一个赌注的产品…
George S T KhooHanse : It is not a trade deal but only very tough tarrifs. Trump behaves as if he holds all the trump cards and no one and nothing can stand in his way to prevent him from achieving what he has set to accomplish and he has the absolute power to keep changing his decisions.He does this to friends and foes alike and has got away all the time. He appears to have absolute power and total immunity and could be the envy of all dictators.His greatest success and achievement is to have brought economic prosperity to the US and this Potus expects to win a second term. Nothing can be better than that. 这不是一个贸易协议,但只是非常困难的塔里夫。特朗普的行为就好像他掌握了所有的特朗普牌,任何人和任何东西都无法阻止他实现他已经设定的目标,他有绝对的权力不断改变自己的决定。他这样做对朋友和敌人都是一样的,并且一直在逃避。他似乎拥有绝对的权力和完全的豁免权,可能是所有独裁者的嫉妒。他最大的成功和成就是为美国带来了经济繁荣,而波图斯希望赢得第二个任期。没有什么比这更好的了。
Bruce McAra : You run a trade deficit with Walmart. You buy more from them than they do for you. You go to Walmart and say “I am going to shop at the corner store until you start buying my garage sale crap and paying as much as I pay you for stuff I buy.”That’s like what’s happening with China. They will simply drag things out until the US realises it needs the stuff China sells and stops trying to bully China. Time is on China’s side. 你和沃尔玛有贸易逆差。你从他们那里买的比他们为你买的还多。你去沃尔玛说:“我要去街角的商店购物,直到你开始买我的旧货销售垃圾,并支付我买东西的钱。”这就像中国发生的事情一样。他们只会把事情拖出去,直到美国意识到它需要中国出售的东西,并停止试图欺负中国。时间站在中国这边。
David Phillips : No trade deal needs to be made. China is already getting hosed. The reason we buy everything from China is because it is cheap. It is cheap because of cheap lobor.Cheap labor means they cannot afford to buy their own stuff much less our overpriced stuff that we do not want to buy ourselves.Chinese people are very proud and they are likely to all starve to death before they will give in to rediculous demands made by the Trump administration. 不需要达成贸易协议。中国已经开始被水疗了。我们从中国买东西的原因是因为它很便宜。这是因为廉价的说客。廉价的劳动力意味着他们买不起自己的东西,更不用说我们不想自己买的高价的东西了。中国人很自豪,他们很可能在屈服于特朗普的荒谬要求之前饿死。
Paul Clifford : Why is China not giving in to Donald Trump’s trade deal?Why should they concede to Trump’s ultimatum, that is totally biased to the interests of the USA.The Chinese aren’t stupid. They know they can out wait Trump, and negotiate a genuine agreement that is of benefit to both the USA & China.Trump has an election coming up, and today’s USA media have reported that he is already attempting to shift blame for his incompetence and stupidity onto the congress and the federal reserve.The USA instigated the WTO & world courts to arbitrate trade disputes. Even though the USA has manipulated the str… 为什么中国不屈服于唐纳德·特朗普的贸易协议?他们为什么要接受特朗普的最后通牒,这完全是对美国利益的偏见。中国人并不愚蠢。他们知道他们可以等待特朗普,谈判一项对美中双方都有利的真正协议。特朗普即将举行选举,今天的美国媒体报道说,他已经试图把他无能和愚蠢的责任推到国会和美联储身上。美国鼓动世贸组织和世界法院仲裁贸易争端。
David ChauHansel Sul : Do you mean Trump is a spoiled kid and won’t give up till he wins? Or you have been brainwashed by Trump and believed everything he said? Americans including you have forgotten which country saved America during the last recession when all your banks were facing bankruptcy and three automakers were nearly extended, which country bought your bonds in trillions? China didn’t steal your jobs it was your greedy corporations closed your factories and moved them to China, you should blame them instead of China, if I were you I will try my best to convince Trump to fold his tent and call it a win. 你是说特朗普是个被宠坏的孩子,他赢了才放弃?或者你被特朗普洗脑,相信他说的一切?包括你在内的美国人已经忘记了上一次经济衰退中哪个国家拯救了美国,当时你们所有的银行都面临破产,三家汽车制造商几乎延期,哪个国家以万亿美元购买了你们的债券?中国没有偷走你的工作,是你贪婪的公司关闭了你的工厂,把他们搬到了中国,你应该责怪他们而不是中国,如果我是你,我会尽力说服特朗普收起他的帐篷,并称之为胜利。
Ray ComeauHansel Sul : Thanks for requestBecause China is not as stupid as Trump thinks it is.China saw how the US screwed over Japan in the 1980’s. China has also good understanding of the US history of “fair trade” given its reputation at WTO.The US being the worse offender. 感谢你的请求,因为中国并不像特朗普认为的那样愚蠢。中国看到了美国在1980年代是如何战胜日本的。鉴于美国在世贸组织的声誉,中国对美国的“公平贸易”历史也有很好的理解。美国是最严重的罪犯。
Marc Bohets : Why should they, as far as I know, China is not part of the US, so the US has no jurisdiction there.What the US is demanding is that China completely change their economical and political system to tightly walk on the US leach.The US is becoming the GREAT DICTATOR of the world, if a country does not jump up and down as they tell them to do, they get economically sabotaged, invaded, bombed or the country leaders are killed or heavily discredited by the CIA. 据我所知,为什么他们不属于美国,所以美国在那里没有管辖权。美国要求的是中国彻底改变他们的经济和政治制度,紧紧地走在美国的道路上。美国正在成为世界上的大独裁者,如果一个国家不按他们的要求上下跳动,他们就会成为世界上的大独裁者。ET在经济上遭到破坏、入侵、轰炸,或者国家领导人被中情局杀害或严重失信。