3月26日，国家有关部门发布通知，要求提高纯电动汽车能耗、续航里程等技术门槛，不达标者将不再享有新能源补贴，政府正在收紧新能源补贴。知名财经评论媒体”The Motley Fool”对此发表了评论文章。
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《Why Investors Should Cheer as China Slashes Electric Vehicle Subsidies》（The Motley Fool）
If you want stocks with potential to make you wealthy over the long haul, you need to find companies with products or services that solve big-time problems. For instance, China’s air pollution became so unhealthy after four decades of intense economic growth that climate science analyst Berkeley Earth estimated it contributed to 1.6 million deaths per year as recently as 2015.
China’s pollution problems and vehicle congestion issues are well known, and one solution amid the country’s war on pollution is to push sales of electric vehicles (EVs). So why then is the government reducing EV subsidies by 50%, and how might EV makers such as NIO (NYSE:NIO) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) actually stand to benefit?
Earlier this week, the Chinese government announced it would reduce the subsidy for pure-battery electric cars with a range of 250 miles or more by half, down to $3,700 per vehicle, according to the Ministry of Finance. That sent a ripple through EV makers’ stocks, especially because the government went a step further than expected and encouraged local governments in China to remove subsidies as well.
When you combine the removal of both subsidies, the impact was a total reduction of 67%, more drastic than analysts’ estimates of a 40% to 50% reduction. While the reduction was worse than expected, the move itself wasn’t a surprise. And the government has also noted it plans to remove subsidies completely after 2020.
While the reduction will hurt in the near term, it should only be a speed bump for automakers. Many Americans are unaware just how difficult it is to purchase a combustion engine license in major Chinese cities. The Chinese government has made growing its EV market a top priority, and as a consequence, obtaining a driver’s license for a combustion engine vehicle in a major city goes through a lottery system where the odds of being selected are below 1%.
And then for the very lucky few who are chosen, they must pay over $14,000 to purchase the license. But what about a license for an EV, you ask? Consumers can get one free, and there’s no lottery system — it’s open to all consumers.
然后，对于非常幸运的少数人，他们必须支付超过14,000美元来购买许可证。但是你要问，EV的许可证呢？消费者可以免费获得一个，并且没有彩票系统 – 它对所有消费者开放。
As you can see, thanks to the simplicity of getting an EV license, and the government’s large task of solving vehicle congestion and pollution, EVs remain a compelling product. Sales are expected to explode in the coming decades regardless of subsidy reductions.
Investors want to find the automakers that can thrive through innovation rather than government assistance. NIO, often called China’s Tesla, should have the ability and brand image to thrive over the long term. So should Tesla, once it completes its Chinese factory and begins local production to avoid steep import tariffs.
Make no mistake, an EV sales boom is coming in China, and all the subsidy reduction will do is eliminate the weak competitors and leave investors with more-innovative companies better suited to thrive.