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英媒:由于病毒限制了产量,中国警告猪肉价格飙升

中国农业部4月17消息:受产能调减的影响,一季度猪肉价格止跌反弹,3月份全国猪肉批发市场均价为19.48/公斤,环比涨6.3%。英国路透社对中国猪市行情进行了报道。

英媒:由于病毒限制了产量,中国警告猪肉价格飙升

 

英媒:由于病毒限制了产量,中国警告猪肉价格飙升

路透社报道截图

 

《China warns of soaring pork prices as virus curbs output》 (REUTERS)
《由于病毒限制了产量,中国警告猪肉价格飙升》  (路透社)

 

Chinese pork prices are set to jump 70 percent in the second half of the year, a senior official said on Wednesday, after data showed an outbreak of African swine fever cut the world’s largest hog herd by 10 percent in the first quarter. 一名高级官员周三表示,中国猪肉价格将在今年下半年上涨70%,此前有数据显示,非洲猪瘟爆发导致第一季度全球最大猪群减产10%。

 

China’s pork production fell 5 percent in the first three months of 2019 and much bigger declines are expected in coming quarters, analysts said, as the country struggles to contain the spread of the deadly disease. 分析师称,中国的猪肉产量在2019年前三个月下降了5%,预计未来几个季度将大幅下降,因为该国正努力遏制这种致命疾病的蔓延。

 

The forecast comes as Washington and Beijing are trying to hammer out a deal to end a months-long trade war that could include China buying more U.S. pork to meet a growing supply deficit, sources told Reuters. 消息人士告诉路透社,华盛顿和北京正在努力达成一项协议,以结束长达数月的贸易战,包括中国购买更多美国猪肉以应对不断增长的供应短缺。

 

“Second quarter [production] will see a marked drop from the first quarter, and the third quarter could be even bigger,” said Feng Yonghui, chief analyst at industry website Soozhu.com. 行业网站Soozhu.com的首席分析师冯永辉表示,“第二季度[产量]将从第一季度开始显着下滑,第三季度可能会更大。”

 

The fall in pork output in the first quarter was muted by demand during China’s Lunar New Year festival in February, with farmers worried about weak pig prices rushing animals to market, Feng said. 冯说,第一季度猪肉产量的下降受到2月份中国农历新年节日需求的影响,农民担心生猪价格疲软会刺激动物进入市场。

 

But a large decline in the breeding herd means output of the country’s most popular meat will continue to fall sharply. 但是,种猪群的大幅下降意味着该国最受欢迎的肉类产量将继续急剧下降。

 

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said last week that China’s sow herd dropped 21 percent in March from the same period a year earlier. 农业和农村事务部上周表示,中国的母猪群在3月份比去年同期下降了21%。

 

African swine fever – deadly in pigs but harmless for humans – has spread rapidly through China, which accounts for about half of global pork output, since the first outbreak was reported last August. 自从去年8月爆发第一次疫情以来,非洲猪瘟 – 在猪身上致命但对人类无害 – 已迅速蔓延到中国,占全球猪肉产量的一半左右。

 

Up to 200 million pigs could be culled or die from being infected by the disease this year, according to Rabobank, which estimated pork production could fall by 30 percent. Other analysts do not expect such a large impact. 根据Rabobank的估计,今年可能会有2亿只猪被扑杀或死于感染这种疾病,估计猪肉产量可能下降30%。其他分析师并不期望这么大的影响。

 

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