《With China-US tensions on the rise, does Australia need a new defence strategy?》 (The Conversation)


Since the last Defence White Paper in 2016, Australian defence observers have been alarmed by four things: 自2016年上一份国防白皮书以来,澳大利亚国防观察员对以下四件事感到震惊:


1. China’s rejection of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling that deemed its nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea illegal  1. 中国拒绝常设仲裁法院的判决,认为其在南海的九条线索赔是非法的


2. China’s conversion of its South China Sea artificial islands into military bases, which was largely complete by the end of 2016, despite a pledge President Xi Jinping gave then-President Barack Obama that China had “no intention to militarise” the islands  2. 中国将其南海人工岛屿转变为军事基地,尽管习近平向当时的总统巴拉克·奥巴马表示中国“无意军事化”这些岛屿,但这种情况在2016年底基本完成。


3. reports in April of this year that China was establishing partnerships with Pacific nations like Vanuatu for potential future military bases and other arrangements  3. 今年4月,中国正在与瓦努阿图等太平洋国家建立伙伴关系,寻求潜在的未来军事基地和其他安排


4. the election of Donald Trump as US president and the uncertainty this has brought to the region due to his disparaging of traditional alliances and disdain for multilateral institutions  4. 唐纳德特朗普当选为美国总统,以及由于他诋毁传统联盟和蔑视多边机构而给该地区带来的不确定性


These regional shifts have also come amid growing illiberalism in China, evidence of increasing Chinese intelligence and influence operations in Australia (especially the Dastyari affair) and bullying behaviour from Chinese officials in their meetings with Australian politicians. 这些地区性变化也发生在中国日益增长的不自由主义,中国情报和影响力在澳大利亚(特别是Dastyari事件)日益增多的证据以及中国官员与澳大利亚政客会晤中的欺凌行为。



Andy King : I agree with that. I don’t see how China is any different to the US. Both have their own agendas and appear to be pursuing them accordingly. 我同意这一点。我看不出中国和美国有什么不同。两者都有自己的议程,也在追守它们。
Katherine Mulholland : Actually the US owns us with 27% of our foreign investment . China is number 9th with 2%. 事实上,美国拥有我们27%的外国投资。中国排名第第九,占2%。
Joan McCarthy : Neutrality is a difficult game to play when the world view of an emerging player is that all other nations essentially should pay homage to it.The behaviour of Chinese officials in PNG will give you some idea of the arrogance that we may be subject to as a so called ‘neutral’ 当一个新兴国家的世界观认为所有其他国家都应该向中立表示敬意时,中立是一个很难玩的游戏。中国官员在巴布亚新几内亚的行为会让你知道,我们可能会受到所谓“中立”的傲慢。
Katherine Mulholland : I can’t agree more with your final statement, “More weaponry does not mean more peace, quite the opposite”. US propaganda against China leasing a port in Sri Lanka for its One belt, One Road initiative has more to do with sea level rise making tiny Diego Garcia redundant. Sri Lanka is an enticing alternative, not least because it is closer to the Middle East and controls Marine access to South East Asia. 我完全同意你的最后声明,“更多的武器并不意味着更多的和平,恰恰相反”。美国反对中国租借斯里兰卡的一个港口,斯里兰卡是一个诱人的选择,尤其是因为它更靠近中东并控制着海军进入东南亚。
Katherine Mulholland : But his focus on China without also focussing on the dangers of the US alliance does. 但是他只关注中国,却没有关注美国的危险。
Jason Sexton : We’ve signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty. That is a pledge to eliminate all nuclear weapons, not build more. 我们签署了《不扩散核武器条约》。这是承诺消灭所有核武器,而不是建造更多核武器。
Greg Raymond : If you download the whole pdf the statement is there, in Section 1255. It says:(3) the United States stands unwaveringly behind its treatyobligations and assurances, including those related to defenseand extended nuclear deterrence, to South Korea, Japan, andAustralia; 如果你下载完整的PDF语句,在第1255节中。它说:(3)美国坚定不移地支持其条约和保证,包括与韩国、日本和澳大利亚的国防和扩大核威慑有关的条约和保证;
Robert Davie : Could you point me to the treaty, declaration by either government or written agreement that supports your claim? The above statement indicates support for the ANZUS treaty but where is the nuclear umbrella agreement/document.between us and the US? 您能告诉我支持您要求的条约、政府声明或书面协议吗?上述声明表明支持澳新条约,但我们与美国之间的核保护伞协定/文件在哪里?
Jason Sexton : “China said it wouldn’t militarize the artificial islands. It did.”  If the Chinese leadership didn’t militarise those islands they’d be criminally negligent. “中国说它不会对人工岛屿进行军事化,但它做了。如果中国领导层不使这些岛屿军事化,他们就会犯过失罪。
MItchell Lennard :  I am saying is that our approaches to China on this issue should be side by side with our near neighbours not the US, who have no real business being involved in our region at all. 我只是想说,我们在这个问题上对中国的态度应该与我们的近邻一样而不是美国,他们根本不参与我们地区的事务。
Alan Grieve : Australia is not in a position to conduct freedom of navigation operations on its own. Which navy would you suggest we call on in the region?After US withdrawal from the region, how long do you expect it to take for Japan and South Korea to acquire their own nuclear arsenals? 澳大利亚不能独自进行航行自由。你建议我们在哪个地区部署哪一个海军?在美国从该地区撤军后,你预计日本和韩国需要多长时间获得自己的核武库?
Greg Raymond : Much of the reason that Australia patrols the South China Sea is grounded in international law. It is thought that if Australia provided de facto recognition of China’s claim, over time it would become likely that an international court would judge, based on state practice, that Australia recognised the nine dash line claim. 澳大利亚在南海巡逻的大部分原因是基于国际法。如果澳大利亚对中国的索赔提供事实上的承认,随着时间的推移,国际法院可能会根据国家实践判断澳大利亚承认了九段线索赔。
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