五角大楼本周发布了关于中国军事实力的2020年报告。国会授权报告的最新趋势追踪了过去二十年来人民解放军(PLA)的爆炸式增长,特别是其海军和先进的新型远程导弹系统… …




国外媒体报道美国发布2020《中国军力报告》(China Military Power Report)



原标题:《Pentagon Releases Annual China Military Power Report》




The Pentagon released its 2020 report on China’s military power this week. Recent trends in the congressionally mandated reports track the explosive growth of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the past two decades, especially its navy and advanced new long-range missile systems. This year’s report looks at China’s strategy and ambitions, assesses its navy to now be the world’s largest, and summarizes major advances in China’s conventional and nuclear missile arsenal.  五角大楼本周发布了关于中国军事实力的2020年报告。国会授权报告的最新趋势追踪了过去二十年来人民解放军(PLA)的爆炸式增长,特别是其海军和先进的新型远程导弹系统。今年的报告着眼于中国的战略和野心,评估了中国海军目前是世界上最大的海军,并总结了中国常规和核导弹武库的重大进展。


In 2017 Chinese President Xi Jinping set out two major goals for the PLA: to complete modernization by 2035 and become a “world class” military by mid-century, presumably prior to the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s centennial in 2049. The Pentagon isn’t sure what exactly “world class” means in practice (the PRC may not either) but it is confident that China isn’t building up its military for show, stating that “the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] desires the PLA to become a practical instrument of its statecraft with an active role in advancing the PRC’s foreign policy, particularly with respect to the PRC’s increasingly global interests and its aims to revise aspects of the international order.”  2017年,中国国家主席习近平为解放军制定了两个主要目标:到2035年完成现代化建设,并在本世纪中叶成为“世界一流”的军队,大概是在2049年中华人民共和国成立一百周年之前。五角大楼不确定“世界一流”在实践中到底意味着什么(中国可能也不是),但它有信心中国没有建立军事实力来示威,并指出“中共希望获得世界一流”。解放军将成为其实用工具,在推动中国的外交政策,特别是在中国日益增长的全球利益及其旨在修改国际秩序方面的积极作用中发挥积极作用。”


Part of building global influence is being able to support its military forces far from home. China already has an overt military base in Djibouti as well as numerous civilian infrastructure projects in the Indian Ocean region that might have dual utility to support a future PLA footprint. The Pentagon assesses that China has likely considered additional military logistics facilities in Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates, Kenya, the Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan. But with growing international concern over China’s intentions and behavior, other experts are skeptical that many of these countries would be willing to host even dual-use facilities, especially neighbors like Singapore, Indonesia, and Myanmar.  建立全球影响力的一部分是能够在远离家乡的地方支持其军队。中国已经在吉布提建立了公开的军事基地,并在印度洋地区建立了许多民用基础设施项目,这些项目可能具有双重用途,以支持未来的PLA足迹。五角大楼估计,中国可能考虑在缅甸,泰国,新加坡,印度尼西亚,巴基斯坦,斯里兰卡,阿联酋,肯尼亚,塞舌尔,坦桑尼亚,安哥拉和塔吉克斯坦增加军事物流设施。但是,随着国际社会对中国的意图和行为日益关注,其他专家对此表示怀疑,其中许多国家甚至愿意提供两用设施,尤其是新加坡,印度尼西亚和缅甸等邻国。


But the most visible of the PRC’s efforts to project military influence around East Asia and the globe is its navy, which the report says is now the largest in the world by number of hulls, with about 350 ships and submarines.  Though now outnumbering the United States’ fleet, which currently boasts 293 vessels, the PLA Navy’s modernizing force varies widely in capabilities, size, and mix of its ships. This limits the value of a direct numerical comparison of the two fleets and even some Chinese naval analysts are skeptical that the PLA Navy will ever be able to establish more than temporary, local advantages over the U.S. Navy in the Western Pacific.  但是,中国在东亚乃至全球范围内扩大军事影响力的努力中最明显的是其海军,该报告称,按舰体数量来说,它目前是世界上最大的海军,拥有约350艘舰艇和潜艇,尽管数量已经超过美国。美国舰队目前拥有293艘舰艇,而PLA海军的现代化部队在能力,大小和混合舰种方面差异很大。这限制了直接对这两个舰队进行数值比较的价值,甚至一些中国海军分析家都对解放军海军能否在西太平洋建立比美国海军更多的临时性,局部优势持怀疑态度。


Still, the PLA Navy now boasts 130 major surface warships. China’s naval growth is supported by the world’s largest shipbuilding capacity and increasingly modern weapons and sensors. China’s second domestically built aircraft carrier is expected to be ready in 2023 and it just launched its first large amphibious assault ship with significant aviation capability. The PLA Navy will likely maintain a fleet of between 65 and 70 submarines, mostly diesel powered, but it is increasingly capable as older hulls are replaced with newer more advanced ones.  不过,解放军海军现在仍拥有130艘主要水面战舰。世界最大的造船能力以及日益现代化的武器和传感器为中国的海军发展提供了支持。中国第二艘国产航母预计将在2023年准备就绪,它刚刚发射了第一艘具有强大航空能力的大型两栖攻击舰。解放军海军可能会维持65到70艘潜艇的舰队,其中大部分是柴油动力,但随着旧船体被更新更先进的船体取代,它的能力越来越强。


For projecting regional power and deterring intervention by outside powers like the United States, China is expanding its arsenal of ground-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles that can reach targets on its maritime neighbors and as far away as the United States’ Pacific territory of Guam. The report counts more than 1,250 ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, the most capable with ranges out to 5,500 kilometers. These include at least 600 short range, 150 medium range, and 200 intermediate range conventional missiles.  为了投射区域力量并阻止诸如美国这样的外部大国的干涉,中国正在扩大其陆基常规弹道导弹和巡航导弹的武库,这些导弹可以到达其海上邻国以及远至美国关岛的太平洋领土。该报告统计了1,250多枚地面发射的弹道和巡航导弹,最有能力的射程可达5500公里。这些包括至少600枚短程,150枚中程和200枚中程常规导弹。


Some of China’s intermediate range missiles, like the advanced DF-26, are believed to be capable of switching quickly between conventional and nuclear warheads, a capability that complicates targeting by an adversary who may wish to eliminate the threat of conventional DF-26 strikes but not threaten China’s nuclear deterrent thereby potentially trigger a nuclear exchange.  据信,中国的一些中程导弹,例如先进的DF-26,能够在常规弹头和核弹头之间快速切换,这种能力使可能希望消除常规DF-26打击威胁的敌方目标复杂化。不会威胁到中国的核威慑力量,从而有可能引发核交换。


To compliment its vast array of conventional strike and deterrent capabilities, China is working to modernize and grow its relatively modest nuclear arsenal.

Last spring the director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency revealed that the United States assessed China intended to roughly double the number of its nuclear weapons this decade, which he characterized as currently being in the “low couple hundreds” of warheads. This year’s Pentagon China report put a number to that estimate — in the low 200s — substantially less than public open-source estimates of China’s arsenal which put it at around 300 weapons. The report also revealed that China’s nuclear arsenal — while still far smaller than the United States’ stockpile of around 4,000 nuclear weapons — will grow in the next five years to include roughly 200 weapons launched from land-based ICBMs capable of hitting the United States.  为了补充其广泛的常规打击和威慑能力,中国正在努力现代化和发展其相对温和的核武库。去年春天,美国国防情报局局长透露,美国评估了中国打算将其数量增加一倍的意图。他认为,这十年来是核武器,目前在“低两百”弹头中。五角大楼中国今年的报告对这个数字进行了估算(在200年代的低点),大大低于公开开放源代码的对中国武器库的估计,后者将其估计为300多种武器。该报告还显示,中国的核武库虽然仍远小于美国的约4,000枚核武器库存,但将在未来五年内增长,包括从陆基洲际弹道导弹发射的能打击美国的约200枚武器。


The Pentagon report also includes examinations of China’s defense economy, the PLA’s bureaucratic and organizational modernization, and efforts to synchronize its civilian economy to support and supplement its defense requirements which complicates international educational, technological, and economic cooperation.  五角大楼的报告还包括对中国国防经济,解放军官僚主义和组织现代化的考察,以及为使其民用经济同步以支持和补充其国防要求而做出的努力,这使国际教育,技术和经济合作更加复杂。

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