NBC: 当拜登还是副总统时,他对北京的看法更为乐观。如今他的观点已经发生了变化,正如华盛顿达成的共识一样。







原标题:Would Biden get ‘tough’ on China?




As the Democratic presidential nominee, Biden now calls Chinese President Xi Jinping a “thug.”  Until recently, the consensus in Washington held that more trade and dialogue with Beijing would help defuse tensions and eventually bring China into the liberal world order shaped by America. The view from both sides of the aisle has dramatically shifted, and Biden’s evolution reflects that change.  作为民主党总统候选人,拜登现在称中国国家主席为“thug”。 直到最近,在华盛顿达成的共识还认为,与北京进行更多的贸易和对话将有助于缓解紧张局势,并最终使中国进入由美国塑造的自由世界秩序。两边的视野发生了巨大变化,拜登的演变反映了这一变化。


In his bid for the White House, Biden has vowed to stand up to Beijing and accused his opponent, President Donald Trump, of getting “played” by the regime. For his part, Trump has painted Biden as “soft” on China, and said the vice president was part of an administration that failed to hold Beijing accountable.  拜登在竞购白宫时曾发誓要挺身而出,指责对手唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)被该政权“played”。就特朗普而言,特朗普将拜登描绘成对中国“软弱”,并表示副总统是未能向北京追究责任的政府的一部分。


If he wins in November, how would Biden handle China? Would he press ahead with tariffs and other punitive measures pursued by Trump? Would he make concessions on trade or human rights in return for a deal on climate?  如果他在11月获胜,拜登将如何处理中国?他会继续推动特朗普推行的关税和其他惩罚性措施吗?他会在贸易或人权方面做出让步,以换取气候协议吗?


Biden and his campaign have spoken in broad strokes without offering details about exactly how far he would be willing to go to confront China on trade, human rights, cyber espionage or its growing presence in the South China Sea. Attempting to a draw a contrast with Trump, who has often shied away from criticizing China over human rights, Biden has vowed to hold China accountable over its treatment of Uighurs in Xinjang and its crackdown in Hong Kong. Biden also says he would shore up U.S. alliances that he says have been badly damaged by Trump to present a united front against Beijing, and invest in high-tech research and education to make the American economy more competitive.  拜登和他的竞选活动发表了广泛的讲话,但没有提供确切的细节来说明他愿意在贸易,人权,网络间谍活动或在南中国海的存在不断扩大的情况下与中国对峙的程度。试图与特朗普形成鲜明对比,特朗普经常回避批评中国的人权问题,拜登曾发誓要对中国在新疆和香港问题负责。拜登还表示,他将支持特朗普表示已严重受损的美国同盟,以提出反对北京的统一战线,并投资于高科技研究和教育以提高美国经济的竞争力。


Former officials and analysts expect that at minimum, Biden would strike a more measured and consistent tone than Trump, who has heaped praise on Xi and at other times unleashed belligerent tweets against China. Given his familiarity with Chinese leaders, Biden will likely work to “redefine the personal temperature with Xi,” said commentator Steven Clemons.  前官员和分析人士预计,拜登至少会比特朗普拥有更审慎和一致的语气,特朗普曾赞扬习近平,有时又发动了针对中国的好战推文。 评论家史蒂文·克莱蒙斯(Steven Clemons)表示,鉴于拜登与中国领导人的熟悉,他可能会“与习近平重新定义个人温度”。


But on matters of substance, Biden and Trump might not be so far apart, partly because of China’s increasingly antagonistic trajectory, former officials and China experts said. Tariffs imposed by Trump, which Biden has criticized as hurting American farmers and manufacturers, could give Biden leverage in any dealings with Beijing, former officials said.  前官员和中国专家说,但就实质问题而言,拜登和特朗普之间可能相距不远,部分原因是中国的对抗性日趋加剧。前官员说,拜登曾批评特朗普施加的关税损害了美国农民和制造商的利益,这可能使拜登在与北京的任何交易中都具有影响力。


Biden would have to contend with progressive voices inside the Democratic party that support tariffs or other protectionist measures against China. A Biden administration likely would come under pressure from organized labor if it tried to revive a version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, which was supposed to create a trading bloc that would exclude China. Trump dumped the deal in one of his first actions as president.  拜登将不得不与民主党内部的进步声音抗衡,这些声音支持对中国征收关税或其他贸易保护主义措施。如果拜登政府试图恢复《跨太平洋伙伴关系》贸易协定的版本,那么它可能会受到有组织的压力,该协定原本应该建立一个排斥中国的贸易集团。特朗普作为总统的首批行动之一就是放弃了这笔交易。


“One of the core challenges that a Biden administration will face early on is deciding their tolerance for risk and friction. That will tell the Chinese something about Biden’s resolve,” said one former senior official who worked on China policy in the Obama administration. “It will send signals to allies as well.”  一位曾在奥巴马政府从事中国政策工作的前高级官员说:“拜登政府将尽早面临的核心挑战之一就是确定他们对风险和摩擦的容忍度。这将使中国人了解拜登的决心。” “它也会向盟友发送信号。”

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